A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
